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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CHI
44.1%
MIN
55.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Andy Dalton (CHI): -0.054 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CHI 21
–
MIN 23
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CHI

Akiem Hicks DT Out Ankle
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Finger
Robert Quinn LB Questionable Shoulder
Duke Shelley CB Questionable Heel

MIN

Michael Pierce DT Doubtful Illness
Mackensie Alexander CB Questionable Ankle
Kris Boyd CB Questionable Ribs
Wyatt Davis G Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 17
–
MIN 31

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:13 FG CHI (12:13) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – MIN 0
  • Q2 05:00 FG CHI (5:00) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 6 – MIN 0
  • Q2 00:36 TD CHI (:36) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 8-D.Williams for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – MIN 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG MIN (:03) 1-G.Joseph 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. CHI 14 – MIN 3
  • Q3 12:31 TD MIN (12:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 15-I.Smith-Marsette for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – MIN 9
  • Q3 01:41 FG CHI (1:41) 2-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 17 – MIN 10
  • Q4 13:44 TD MIN (13:44) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – MIN 16
  • Q4 08:11 TD MIN (8:11) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – MIN 23
  • Q4 05:10 TD MIN (5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left intended for 83-D.Newsome INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson [79-K.Willekes] at MIN 34. 7-P.Peterson for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – MIN 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 88%

    (12:13) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:21) 3-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CHI 30, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Newsome ran ob at CHI 47 for 17 yards (82-B.Ellefson; 46-M.Dorn).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 49%

    (8:19) (Shotgun) 64-A.Bars reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery left guard to MIN 40 for 4 yards (90-S.Richardson).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 70%

    (6:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at 50 for -15 yards (98-D.Wonnum).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (10:38) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at MIN 18 for -5 yards (98-D.Wonnum).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:08) 3-J.Berry punts 52 yards to CHI 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Newsome to CHI 36 for 9 yards (5-T.Smith).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

    (5:00) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:24) 3-J.Berry punts 57 yards to CHI 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Newsome to CHI 33 for 11 yards (35-L.Stocker).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (7:55) 14-A.Dalton sacked at MIN 16 for -15 yards (55-A.Barr).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:00) 3-J.Berry punts 52 yards to CHI 32, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Newsome to CHI 42 for 10 yards (45-T.Dye, 82-B.Ellefson).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 88%

    (1:41) 2-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to MIN 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 32%

    (5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left intended for 83-D.Newsome INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson [79-K.Willekes] at MIN 34. 7-P.Peterson for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:50) 3-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 83-D.Newsome.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 82 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-D.Newsome pushed ob at CHI 31 for 13 yards (27-C.Dantzler).