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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 28

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 2-C.Santos 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model