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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Chicago Bears
4th & 5 at the 35
Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0
What Actually Happened
(6:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at 50 for -15 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
The Three Options
GO
+0.46 EP
What Happened
-
42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
- 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.92 EP
KICK
+0.46 EP
Model's Pick
- 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
- 30% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT
-0.31 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
