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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 51

Chicago Bears 17 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left intended for 83-D.Newsome INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson [79-K.Willekes] at MIN 34. 7-P.Peterson for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.48 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model