Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 31 – Chicago Bears 17

(3:50) 3-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CHI 15, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 83-D.Newsome.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.24 EP
67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 55, worth -2.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model