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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 79

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 3-J.Berry punts 52 yards to CHI 27, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Newsome to CHI 36 for 9 yards (5-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.79 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 79, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 36, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model