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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 3-J.Berry punts 52 yards to CHI 32, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-D.Newsome to CHI 42 for 10 yards (45-T.Dye, 82-B.Ellefson).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.14 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 42, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model