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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 14.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

ATL
27.0%
BUF
73.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.156 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 17
–
BUF 26
Projected margin: BUF by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ATL

Fabian Moreau CB Doubtful Ribs

BUF

Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Knee
Ed Oliver DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 15
–
BUF 29

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:18 SAF BUF (11:18) 19-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to BUF 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 12 for no gain (35-A.Williams). FUMBLES (35-A.Williams), touched at BUF 2, recovered by BUF-15-J.Kumerow at BUF -1. 15-J.Kumerow tackled in End Zone, SAFETY. ATL 2 – BUF 0
  • Q1 03:19 TD BUF (3:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 2 – BUF 6
  • Q1 00:39 TD BUF (:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 2 – BUF 13
  • Q2 10:12 FG ATL (10:12) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. ATL 5 – BUF 14
  • Q2 01:52 TD ATL (1:52) 28-M.Davis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 11 – BUF 14
  • Q2 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 7-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. ATL 15 – BUF 14
  • Q3 06:02 TD BUF (6:02) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 15 – BUF 20
  • Q4 10:51 TD BUF (10:51) 26-D.Singletary left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 15 – BUF 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 34%

    (11:18) 19-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to BUF 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 12 for no gain (35-A.Williams). FUMBLES (35-A.Williams), touched at BUF 2, recovered by BUF-15-J.Kumerow at BUF -1. 15-J.Kumerow tackled in End Zone, SAFETY.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 14 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:33) 19-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to BUF 31, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (10:12) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:15) 19-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to BUF 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 5-M.Stevenson pushed ob at BUF 35 for 19 yards (40-K.Smith).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 90%

    (12:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard to ATL 18 for 2 yards (54-F.Oluokun).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%

    (5:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right.