Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Buffalo Bills 22

(3:15) 19-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to BUF 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 5-M.Stevenson pushed ob at BUF 35 for 19 yards (40-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.87 EP
66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model