Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 19-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to BUF 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 12 for no gain (35-A.Williams). FUMBLES (35-A.Williams), touched at BUF 2, recovered by BUF-15-J.Kumerow at BUF -1. 15-J.Kumerow tackled in End Zone, SAFETY.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.13 EP
62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.97 EP

KICK -1.49 EP

34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
66% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model