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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 2 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 19-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to BUF 31, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model