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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 2 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP