4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 22 – Atlanta Falcons 15

What Actually Happened

(12:59) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard to ATL 18 for 2 yards (54-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO +3.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.81 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model