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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 16

Atlanta Falcons 15 – Buffalo Bills 29

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.97 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.99 EP