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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Saturday 2021-12-25 · 20:15 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

IND
50.4%
ARI
49.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): +0.161 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI defense: -0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

IND 25
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

IND

Ryan Kelly C Out Not injury related - personal matter
Andrew Sendejo S Out Concussion

ARI

Jordan Phillips DE Out Knee
James Conner RB Questionable Heel
Rondale Moore WR Questionable Ankle
Max Garcia C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 22
–
ARI 16

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:16 TD IND (6:16) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 13-T.Hilton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – ARI 0
  • Q1 03:06 TD ARI (3:06) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 7 – ARI 6
  • Q2 04:25 SAF IND (4:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray to ARI 6 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ARI -5. 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on ARI-1-K.Murray, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. IND 9 – ARI 6
  • Q2 00:05 FG IND (:05) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 12 – ARI 6
  • Q3 10:58 TD ARI (10:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-A.Wesley for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 12 – ARI 12
  • Q3 00:07 FG IND (:07) 6-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. IND 15 – ARI 13
  • Q4 06:45 TD IND (6:45) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 10-D.Patmon for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ARI-94-Z.Allen, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. IND 21 – ARI 13
  • Q4 00:46 FG ARI (:46) 5-M.Prater 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow. IND 22 – ARI 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 75%

    (9:45) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-C.McCoy.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 70%

    (14:14) 6-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 75%

    (10:14) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 86-Z.Ertz ran ob at IND 17 for 16 yards. Indianapolis challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 86-Z.Ertz.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 41%

    (5:58) 8-R.Sanchez punts 39 yards to ARI 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 20 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 89%

    (:05) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 15 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:30) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to ARI 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 7-B.Murphy pushed ob at IND 42 for 48 yards (38-T.Carrie, 59-J.Glasgow).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 68%

    (5:45) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:28) 16-R.Winslow punts 39 yards to IND 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (:07) 6-M.Badgley 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:55) (No Huddle) 29-J.Ward up the middle to ARI 37 for 3 yards (97-A.Muhammad).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 89%

    (11:12) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-16-R.Winslow.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:25) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep middle to 18-A.Green.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 56%

    (4:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 32 yards to ARI 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.