4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 22 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 32 yards to ARI 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.46 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP