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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 20 at the 23

Indianapolis Colts 9 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(:05) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.64 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model