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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 33

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-C.McCoy.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.17 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 33, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model