Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Indianapolis Colts 12

(5:28) 16-R.Winslow punts 39 yards to IND 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.65 EP
66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model