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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 6-M.Badgley 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model