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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 12 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to ARI 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 7-B.Murphy pushed ob at IND 42 for 48 yards (38-T.Carrie, 59-J.Glasgow).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.39 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model