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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2021-12-26 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DET
30.5%
ATL
69.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Tim Boyle (DET): -0.531 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DET starting Tim Boyle in place of Jared Goff)
  • ATL offense: -0.154 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 19
–
ATL 24
Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DET

Amani Oruwariye CB Out Thumb
Josh Woods LB Out Neck
Michael Brockers DE Questionable Knee
Jonah Jackson G Questionable Back
Julian Okwara LB Questionable Ankle
Kalif Raymond WR Questionable Shoulder
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Questionable Shoulder
Josh Reynolds WR Questionable Thigh
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Shoulder

ATL

Tajae Sharpe WR Doubtful Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 16
–
ATL 20

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:28 FG DET (3:28) 6-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – ATL 0
  • Q2 11:00 TD ATL (11:00) 84-C.Patterson left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – ATL 6
  • Q2 03:54 TD DET (3:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – ATL 7
  • Q2 01:09 FG ATL (1:09) 7-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. DET 10 – ATL 10
  • Q3 10:15 FG ATL (10:15) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. DET 10 – ATL 13
  • Q3 03:11 FG DET (3:11) 6-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 13 – ATL 13
  • Q4 13:10 TD ATL (13:10) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-H.Hurst for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – ATL 19
  • Q4 02:42 FG DET (2:42) 6-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 16 – ATL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 15 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:14) 19-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to DET 19, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-K.Raymond to DET 38 for 19 yards (21-D.Harmon).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (3:28) 6-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:03) 19-T.Morstead punts 61 yards to DET 10, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-47-J.Harris. Penalty on DET-40-M.Gilbert, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:30) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to ATL 33, Center-47-S.Daly. 35-A.Williams to ATL 46 for 13 yards (55-D.Barnes).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (11:00) 84-C.Patterson left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 44%

    (5:31) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass short right to 18-K.Hodge to ATL 24 for 21 yards (34-D.Hall; 35-A.Williams).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 69%

    (1:09) 7-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 26%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.St. Brown.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:38) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to ATL 11, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 79%

    (10:15) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 16 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (3:11) 6-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 82%

    (7:48) 69-W.Holden reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams right end to ATL 26 for 2 yards (54-F.Oluokun).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 94%

    (5:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass short middle to 11-K.Raymond to ATL 13 for 4 yards (45-D.Jones).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (2:42) 6-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.