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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 19

Detroit Lions 10 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 6-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model