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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 53

Detroit Lions 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Boyle pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.St. Brown.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.54 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 53, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP