Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 19-T.Morstead punts 61 yards to DET 10, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-47-J.Harris. Penalty on DET-40-M.Gilbert, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model