Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(11:14) 19-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to DET 19, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-K.Raymond to DET 38 for 19 yards (21-D.Harmon).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.58 EP
72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model