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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 6
Atlanta Falcons 0 – Detroit Lions 3
What Actually Happened
(11:00) 84-C.Patterson left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.71 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.88 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 6, worth -0.03 EP
KICK
+1.88 EP
- 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT
-0.23 EP
- Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
