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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 45

Detroit Lions 3 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass short right to 18-K.Hodge to ATL 24 for 21 yards (34-D.Hall; 35-A.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.20 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 45, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model