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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2021-12-19 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 💨 Windy Spread 3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CIN
47.4%
DEN
52.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • DEN offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Teddy Bridgewater (DEN): +0.112 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 19 mph
  • CIN defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CIN

Riley Reiff T Out Ankle
Logan Wilson LB Out Shoulder
Vernon Hargreaves CB Questionable Illness
Trey Hill C Questionable Illness
Isaiah Prince T Questionable Illness
Markus Bailey LB Questionable Neck

DEN

Dre'Mont Jones DE Doubtful Foot
Kenny Young LB Doubtful Concussion
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Thumb
Nate Hairston CB Questionable Neck
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Ankle
Kareem Jackson S Questionable Back
Bobby Massie T Questionable Hip
Caden Sterns CB Questionable Shoulder
Javonte Williams RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 15
–
DEN 10

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:39 FG CIN (6:39) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – DEN 0
  • Q2 10:49 FG DEN (10:49) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. CIN 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 00:04 FG CIN (:04) 2-E.McPherson 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 6 – DEN 3
  • Q3 06:24 FG CIN (6:24) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 9 – DEN 3
  • Q3 01:21 TD DEN (1:21) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep left to 81-T.Patrick for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-81-T.Patrick, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CIN 9 – DEN 9
  • Q3 00:41 TD CIN (:41) (No Huddle) 9-J.Burrow pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 15 – DEN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (14:07) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (10:40) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 32 for 12 yards (50-J.Griffith).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 58%

    (6:39) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:56) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 11 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:27) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to DEN 34, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:23) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:47) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to DEN 32, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 56%

    (10:49) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (8:12) 10-K.Huber punts 61 yards to DEN 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-17-S.Morgan.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:52) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to CIN 33, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 38 for 5 yards (40-J.Strnad).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:38) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 64%

    (:14) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:34) 6-S.Martin punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (6:24) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:59) 10-K.Huber punts 56 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 22 for 12 yards (34-S.Perine). PENALTY on DEN-37-P.Locke, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 10. Penalty on DEN-40-J.Strnad, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 13 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:50) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 22 for 5 yards (40-J.Strnad).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:16) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to DEN 7, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 25 for 18 yards (84-M.Wilcox; 47-K.Jones).