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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 81

Denver Broncos 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(5:52) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to CIN 33, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 38 for 5 yards (40-J.Strnad).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model