4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to DEN 32, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.80 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model