Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 67

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

(3:56) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.87 EP
69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model