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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 71

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-T.Taylor to CIN 32 for 12 yards (50-J.Griffith).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.75 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP