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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 58% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP