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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 13:00 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

PIT
37.3%
CIN
62.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.122 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 20
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PIT

Eric Ebron TE Out Knee
J.C. Hassenauer C Out Pectoral
Joe Haden CB Questionable Foot

CIN

Auden Tate WR Doubtful Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 10
–
CIN 41

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:38 TD CIN (9:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 06:04 FG CIN (6:04) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PIT 0 – CIN 10
  • Q1 02:21 FG PIT (2:21) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – CIN 10
  • Q2 14:20 TD CIN (14:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 85-T.Higgins for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – CIN 16
  • Q2 02:49 TD CIN (2:49) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – CIN 23
  • Q2 00:37 TD CIN (:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left intended for 13-J.Washington INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hilton at PIT 24. 21-M.Hilton for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – CIN 30
  • Q3 02:40 FG CIN (2:40) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on PIT-20-C.Sutton, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 3 – CIN 34
  • Q4 13:13 TD CIN (13:13) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – CIN 40
  • Q4 03:05 TD PIT (3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – CIN 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (6:04) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 88%

    (2:21) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 31%

    (10:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 31 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:55) 6-P.Harvin punts 37 yards to CIN 29, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 11 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:24) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 23-D.Phillips ran ob at CIN 33 for 17 yards (24-B.Snell).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:42) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-31-Mi.Thomas.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 60%

    (4:12) 79-J.Carman reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle to PIT 34 for 2 yards (95-C.Wormley; 97-C.Heyward).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 68%

    (2:40) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on PIT-20-C.Sutton, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:15) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CIN 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 35 for no gain (44-D.Watt).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 12 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 26%

    (10:46) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-54-U.Gilbert.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (6:20) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to PIT 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 31 for 3 yards (31-Mi.Thomas; 57-G.Pratt).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:55) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to PIT 36, Center-46-C.Harris. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 36 for no gain (80-M.Thomas).