4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on PIT-20-C.Sutton, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model