Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

(1:15) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CIN 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 35 for no gain (44-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model