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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to CIN 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 23-D.Phillips ran ob at CIN 33 for 17 yards (24-B.Snell).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model