4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 22

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.95 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model