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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 79-J.Carman reported in as eligible. 28-J.Mixon up the middle to PIT 34 for 2 yards (95-C.Wormley; 97-C.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model