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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 41 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to PIT 28, Center-46-C.Harris. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 31 for 3 yards (31-Mi.Thomas; 57-G.Pratt).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.07 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model