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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Thursday 2021-11-25 · 12:30 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CHI
54.1%
DET
45.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Jared Goff (DET) -0.124 vs Andy Dalton (CHI) -0.030 EPA/dropback (DET starting Jared Goff in place of Tim Boyle; CHI starting Andy Dalton in place of Justin Fields)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CHI defense: +0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 22
–
DET 21
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CHI

Justin Fields QB Out Ribs
Akiem Hicks DT Out Ankle
Damien Williams RB Out Calf
Allen Robinson WR Doubtful Hamstring
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Chest
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Shoulder
Mario Edwards DT Questionable Ribs
Eddie Jackson S Questionable Hamstring

DET

Trinity Benson WR Out Knee
Trey Flowers LB Out Knee
Matt Nelson T Out Ankle
A.J. Parker CB Out Ankle
Halapoulivaati Vaitai G Out Concussion
Michael Brockers DE Questionable Knee
Jared Goff QB Questionable Oblique
Jermar Jefferson RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 16
–
DET 14

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:33 TD DET (9:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 8-J.Reynolds for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DET 6
  • Q2 13:27 FG CHI (13:27) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – DET 7
  • Q2 04:33 TD CHI (4:33) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 80-J.Graham for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – DET 7
  • Q2 00:04 FG CHI (:04) 2-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 13 – DET 7
  • Q3 01:51 TD DET (1:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 88-T.Hockenson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – DET 13
  • Q4 00:01 FG CHI (:01) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 16 – DET 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:53) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to DET 22, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for 9 yards (23-M.Christian; 48-P.Scales).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 32%

    (5:28) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to DET 7, Center-48-P.Scales. 39-J.Jacobs MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 4.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:14) 3-J.Fox punts 70 yards to CHI 26, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-27-B.Price. PENALTY on CHI-57-C.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 26.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (13:27) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:22) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to CHI 41, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at CHI 46 for 5 yards (18-K.Hodge).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:59) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CHI 30, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-J.Grant to CHI 43 for 13 yards (57-A.Pittman, 47-S.Daly).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 16 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 70%

    (8:43) 2-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%

    (7:16) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (5:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DET 21, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 36%

    (12:19) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 10, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-35-R.Nall.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (:01) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.