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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 52

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 13

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 3-J.Fox punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.03 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model