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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 10

Chicago Bears 13 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(:01) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 10, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model