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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 86

Detroit Lions 7 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(1:22) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to CHI 41, Center-47-S.Daly. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at CHI 46 for 5 yards (18-K.Hodge).

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.27 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 86, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 44, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model