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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 16 at the 35

Chicago Bears 13 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 2-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.74 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model