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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 51

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to DET 7, Center-48-P.Scales. 39-J.Jacobs MUFFS catch, and recovers at DET 4.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.49 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP