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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 10

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 10, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model