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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2021-11-21 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread 13.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DET
28.3%
CLE
71.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Tim Boyle (DET): -0.212 EPA/dropback in prior starts (DET starting Tim Boyle in place of Jared Goff)
  • DET defense: +0.156 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 18
–
CLE 26
Projected margin: CLE by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

DET

Trey Flowers LB Out Knee
Jermar Jefferson RB Out Knee
Matt Nelson T Out Ankle
Jared Goff QB Doubtful Oblique
Tracy Walker S Questionable Concussion
Trinity Benson WR Questionable Knee
Taylor Decker T Questionable Elbow
Jamaal Williams RB Questionable Thigh

CLE

A.J. Green CB Out Concussion
Troy Hill CB Out Neck
Anthony Schwartz WR Out Concussion
Takkarist McKinley DE Questionable Groin
Donovan Peoples-Jones WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 10
–
CLE 13

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD CLE (15:00) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 80-J.Landry. 80-J.Landry scrambles up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 01:14 TD CLE (1:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CLE 13
  • Q3 02:04 TD DET (2:04) (Shotgun) 32-D.Swift right tackle for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CLE 13
  • Q4 09:10 FG DET (9:10) 5-A.Rosas 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 10 – CLE 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 35%

    (12:02) 7-J.Gillan punts 28 yards to DET 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:26) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to CLE 13, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-D.Felton to CLE 13 for no gain (27-B.Price).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:57) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to CLE 33, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-D.Felton MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 35.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 81%

    (10:13) 3-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (8:15) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to CLE 12, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-D.Felton to CLE 24 for 12 yards (38-C.Moore, 44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:40) 3-J.Fox punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:25) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to DET 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-29-H.Miller.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:27) 7-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to DET 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 40 for 17 yards (43-J.Johnson).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 15 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 35%

    (13:03) 3-J.Fox punts 32 yards to CLE 15, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-18-K.Hodge.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 85%

    (9:10) 5-A.Rosas 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:23) 7-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to DET 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:36) 3-J.Fox punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-S.Daly, Touchback.