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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 28

Cleveland Browns 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 3-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.55 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model